Methodology

Knowing what is confirmed changes the decision.

We distinguish verified facts, analytical inference and points that still require evidence.

01
Source

Primary sources and data relevant to the decision.

02
Validation

Cross-check sources to confirm facts and inconsistencies.

03
Evidence

Verified facts with traceable references.

04
Analysis

Impact, inference and options clearly separated.

Principles

Four controls against weak conclusions.

Fact vs. inference

Separate what sources confirm from what analysis infers.

Certainty vs. uncertainty

Show the confidence level behind each important conclusion.

Traceability

Connect important claims to sources that can be checked again.

Original vs. secondary

Distinguish original data from secondary sources and prior interpretation.

Confidence

Three evidence levels.

Each important claim shows where evidence ends and interpretation begins.

  • Verified

    Confirmed by a primary source or by cross-checking multiple sources.

  • Inferred

    An analytical conclusion based on evidence and explicitly labeled as inference.

  • Uncertain

    Partial or contradictory evidence that requires further validation.

Is the evidence contradictory or incomplete?

Discuss the decision